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October
26, 2005 Detroit News Forget Hybrids America; Diesels
will Provide Economy, Performance
Technology allows diesels to meet toughest upcoming emissions rules; automakers' hybrid alliances show lack of belief in gas-electric future By Neil Winton GRANADA, Spain -- Peugeot of France doesn't sell its cars in the U.S. but its new 407 Coupe (pictured) is powered by an engine that will induce a warm glow in Americans. The engine is a diesel, and it means that Americans forced by high gas prices to seek alternatives to fuel-guzzling motors can do so without making sacrifices. The new car, launched here in October, is powered by a 2.7 litre V-6 diesel which is quieter than a gasoline engine, has so much torque that its acceleration is blistering and instantaneous, does a average 27.6 miles per U.S. gallon, and most important of all, the engine is made by Ford and is already used in top-of-the-line Jaguars and Range Rovers. This is no smokey, under-powered, bag-o-nails old diesel rattlebox. It is creamy smooth, quiet, sophisticated, and environmentally friendly. To be fair, Ford makes this latest technology common rail diesel engine in a joint venture with Peugeot. But the capability of the engines like these in terms of economy and refined performance makes Europeans wonder why Americans are making such a fuss about hybrid engines.Despite all the hullabaloo about hybrids, experts predict that by 2012 Americans will be buying roughly twice as many diesels as hybrids. By then, diesels will also be able to match the toughest emission regulations set by California. Expensive Hybrids The runaway price of gasoline has forced Americans to look for more economical fuel. Sure, the gas-electric hybrid engines powering the Toyota Prius and Lexus RX400h are breathtaking technological achievements. But they are heavy and expensive. And claims by Toyota that the Prius will average 54.7 miles per U.S. gallon have not been borne out in Europe, where you can expect around 42 mpg (35 miles per U.S. gallon). Diesel-powered cars like the VW Passat can easily better that, and can combine frugality with much better performance than the Prius. You would expect leaders of big European manufacturers to echo this idea, and they do, describing hybrids as an expensive blind alley. "Despite the big public debate right now, it (hybrids) will just be a niche technology," German luxury car maker BMW AG chief executive Helmut Panke told Reuters at the Tokyo car show. "They (hybrids) do not have long-term economic prospects because they are a lot more expensive to produce (than diesels) with the same results," said Jean-Martin Folz, chief executive of French mass car manufacturer PSA Peugeot Citroen. Experts like Peter Schmidt, editor of the pan-European bi-weekly newsletter Automotive Industry Data, reckon that Toyota's hybrid venture, although an impressive engineering program, was more of a public relations exercise. "Toyota lacks one fundamental element -- image - unlike BMW or Mercedes. Toyota cleverly used the environmental theme to boost this," said Schmidt. Schmidt agrees that diesels are at least the match for hybrids in terms of economy and performance at a cheaper price, but says the crucial element in diesel success in America will be its ability to match tough new laws curbing emissions of soot or particulates, and dangerous nitrogen oxides (NOx). Meeting California Laws "Exhaust emissions from diesels will easily meet the next laws in 2007, which don't differentiate between petrol and diesel, and diesels will easily meet significantly tougher laws coming up, particularly in California; these can be met without sweat, no problem whatsoever," said Schmidt. According to Schmidt, three hurdles need to be jumped in diesels' race to be clean: "Quality of fuel - Late next year a U.S. federal law will force diesel fuel's sulphur content down to 15 parts per million, comparable to European levels of 10 ppm. "Particulate emissions - That nasty black soot which diesels used to spew out has been eradicated by particulate filters, now commonplace on European diesels. "NOx filters - Diesels emit more nitrogen oxide (NOx) than gas engines, but emissions can be reduced to comparable levels by fitting a de-NOx filter, an additional catalyst. Mercedes "Bluetec" technology is an example of this. Automotive research firm J.D. Power and Associates agrees that diesels will be clean enough to compete and its latest data predicts that by 2012 almost twice as many diesels as hybrid cars and light trucks will be sold in America - 4.1 percent hybrid market share versus 7.6 percent diesel. In 2004, hybrids powered about 0.5 percent of cars and light trucks, with 3 percent diesel. "We are assuming that diesels will make the tough emission standards," said J.D. Power analyst Anthony Pratt. Little Impression in Europe Pratt reckons that the U.S. accounts for about 70 percent of global hybrid sales, with 23 percent in Asia and only 7 percent in Europe. He doesn't expect hybrids to make much of an impression in Europe because diesels, which account for a whopping 50 percent of car sales currently, are so well established there. Why then did BMW recently announce that it had joined the General Motors and DaimlerChrysler alliance to develop its own hybrid engine? VW, and its subsidiary Audi, also said they had joined Porsche to develop a hybrid. "California is a very important market for luxury brands and some vehicles will have to be able to drive with zero emissions some of the time. Luxury manufacturers must look as though they are environmentally friendly, they need to have at least one vehicle to prove their green credentials," Pratt said. Alliances also show a lack of conviction about the future of hybrids, which currently add about $3,000 to the cost of each car. "These alliances indicate they (manufacturers) don't really accept the technology. They are spreading the risk because they don't have much confidence in its (hybrids') future," said Pratt. John Lawson, European auto analyst for investment banker Citigroup, reckoned that European manufacturers' belief in hybrids was not very deep. "They see it as a way of selling more SUVs in the U.S. There's low expectation that European consumers will pay up for the additional engineering. But they can see some potential in the medium term for next generation hybrids which will be able to run entirely electric in town," said Lawson. It is likely that some towns in Europe and possibly the U.S. will decree sometime in the future that only electric vehicles can be used in rush-hour traffic. Lawson agrees that American's enthusiasm for diesels is gathering pace, led by oil-burning VW Jettas, Passats, and Beetles, although the gas station infrastructure needs to be improved. Diesel pumps need to be moved from the truck sector to the car area. AID's Schmidt has no doubts. Diesels Superior "Diesels are all round superior to hybrids in terms of running costs, manufacturing costs, flexibility in town and highway, they are winning hands down. Hybrids' only plus? A marginal advantage in very heavy traffic congestion," said Schmidt. So will Ford send that creamy V-6 diesel engine to America? I'm sorry to report the answer is no. "Ford has no plans at the moment to use this engine in the U.S.," said a spokesman. Come to think of it, that doesn't sound like a very serious "no". Neil Winton, European columnist for Autos Insider, is based in Sussex, England. E-mail him at neil@jinks.demon.co.uk. ARTICLE SOURCE: Diesel Technology Forum http://www.dieselforum.org/newsarticle/article/351/56/ |
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